I. Polyak et G. North, EVALUATION OF THE GFDL GCM CLIMATE VARIABILITY .2. STOCHASTIC MODELING AND LATITUDE-TEMPORAL FIELDS, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 102(D6), 1997, pp. 6799-6812
This paper statistically analyzes and compares the variability of the
observed and simulated (by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory ge
neral circulation model) northern hemisphere monthly surface air tempe
rature latitude-temporal fields. The objects used for the analysis are
as follows: multivariate autoregressive and linear regression model p
arameters, the diffusion equation coefficients, and two-dimensional sp
atial-temporal spectral and correlation characteristics. The estimates
reveal a significant latitudinal trend of all second moments. A compa
rative study of the estimates demonstrates a significant distinction b
etween the character of the meridional circulations of the observed an
d simulated systems. The methodology and results presented make it cle
ar that the variability validation problems can be formalized by apply
ing standard statistical techniques of multivariate modeling and multi
dimensional spectral and correlation analysis to the data averaged spa
tially and temporally.