A. Avdeev et al., THE REACTION OF A HETEROGENEOUS POPULATIO N TO PERTURBATION - AN INTERPRETATIVE MODEL OF MORTALITY TRENDS IN RUSSIA, Population, 52(1), 1997, pp. 7-44
The rapid increase in mortality in Russia during the past ten years is
perplexing. Several authors have explored these movements in depth. I
n this paper, the authors offer a new interpretation of these dynamics
which complements those put forward by previous authors. It shows tha
t the dynamics cannot be studies without taking account of previous mo
vements observed since the 1960s. They suggest that recent development
s are the cumulative result of a compensation mechanism which followed
the rapid decrease in mortality which occurred around 1985, and of th
e continuation of a deteriotation movement which began in the early 19
60s. It does not represent a new trend to a rapidly deteriorating situ
ation. To prove this and to explain these rapid fluctuations, the auth
ors have developed a model based on hypotheses which involve heterogen
eous populations. In addition to analyzing mortality in Russia, they p
rovide new models which relate to the consequences of heterogeneity on
the dynamics of mortality.