THE REACTION OF A HETEROGENEOUS POPULATIO N TO PERTURBATION - AN INTERPRETATIVE MODEL OF MORTALITY TRENDS IN RUSSIA

The rapid increase in mortality in Russia during the past ten years is perplexing. Several authors have explored these movements in depth. I n this paper, the authors offer a new interpretation of these dynamics which complements those put forward by previous authors. It shows tha t the dynamics cannot be studies without taking account of previous mo vements observed since the 1960s. They suggest that recent development s are the cumulative result of a compensation mechanism which followed the rapid decrease in mortality which occurred around 1985, and of th e continuation of a deteriotation movement which began in the early 19 60s. It does not represent a new trend to a rapidly deteriorating situ ation. To prove this and to explain these rapid fluctuations, the auth ors have developed a model based on hypotheses which involve heterogen eous populations. In addition to analyzing mortality in Russia, they p rovide new models which relate to the consequences of heterogeneity on the dynamics of mortality.