FORECASTING REPLACEMENT DEMAND BY OCCUPATION AND EDUCATION

Replacement demand is an important component of the future demand for manpower often neglected in manpower demand forecasts. In particular, for characterizing the prospects for newcomers on the labour market, t he manpower requirements method is not adequate as it merely focuses o n employment mutations. This study builds a theoretical framework to m easure the historical replacement demand distinguished by occupation a nd education. This framework is extended so that in addition to employ ment growth forecasts, forecasts can also be made of the future replac ement demand for about 80 occupational classes and 50 educational grou ps, as we have done for the Netherlands for the period 1989-1994.