RISK PREDICTION AND RE-OFFENDING - ABORIGINAL AND NONABORIGINAL OFFENDERS

This research assesses offender risk and needs and the prediction of r ecidivism for a Manitoba sample of aboriginal and non-aboriginal proba tioners. The major finding was that a risk/needs classification instru ment originally developed on a sample of non-aboriginal offenders demo nstrated predictive validity among aboriginal offenders. Establishing the validity of the Manitoba Risk-Needs Scale with aboriginal offender s also implies that the risk factors are similar for aboriginal and no n-aboriginal offenders. While some of the individual items did not pre dict as consistently for the ''treaty'' group as for the metis/non-sta tus group, important factors such as criminal history, substance abuse , and criminal peers demonstrated good predictive validity. The findin gs support a social psychological perspective of criminal conduct that views risk-needs factors as the same for groups regardless of culture and race.