A MATHEMATICAL-MODEL FOR THE OCCURRENCES OF JAPANESE ENCEPHALITIS

The frequency of occurrences of Japanese Encephalitis (JE) during diff erent months of the years 1986-1990 in Burdwan of West Bengal, India, has been studied with the help of a mathematical model using a third o rder harmonic Fourier Series having a linear trend. The validity of th is model has been tested by available data of five years in Burdwan an d of one year in Thailand and by appropriate goodness of fit tests. Th is model seems to have a wide universal application where predominant seasonal effects prevail and can be satisfactorily used for prediction of JE for the next coming year.