THE COLLAPSE OF THE BIPOLAR SYSTEM AND MAINLAND CHINA FOREIGN-POLICY

Since the late 1980s, mainland China has experienced many turbulent up s and downs in its international position. There are two theories in t he field that attempt to explain this. The systems theory asserts that with the collapse of the bipolar system and the dissolution of the st rategic triangle, mainland China has lost its strong strategic positio n. The sanctions imposed by the West on the Chinese Communist regime a fter the Tienanmen (Tiananmen) incident, the relative elevation of Tai wan's international position, the tough U.S. stance against the Chines e mainland on trade matters and human rights issues, and the strife be tween London and Peking (Beijing) over Hong Kong's political reform ar e all evidence of the declining position of the mainland. The anti-sys tems theory, however, dismisses the significance of the collapse of th e Soviet Union, and asserts that the size and inherent importance of m ainland China enabled it to overcome the hostile international environ ment in the immediate post-Tienanmen period, as witness Peking's diplo matic successes from 1990 to 1992. The systems theory and the anti-sys tems theory offer only partial explanations for the events since 1989. The systems approach fails to account for Peking's diplomatic recover y, while the anti-systems approach cannot explain the overall weakenin g of mainland China's position, especially since late 1992. The first part of this article assesses the relevance of these two theories, and comes up with a modified systems theory, which accepts the basic assu mptions of the systems approach, but puts emphasis on the time lag bet ween international systemic changes and foreign policy changes. Since the dissolution of the bipolar system was not complete until the end o f 1991, and the Cold War perceptions of many Western leaders had stron g staying power, the full implications of the systemic changes were no t revealed until late 1992, when leadership changes brought about fres h perspectives more congruent with the systemic reality. The second pa rt of this article analyzes the new orientations of Peking's foreign p olicy: regional superiority and economic diplomacy. The first is to re duce commitments and to safeguard Peking's core values, particularly n ational sovereignty and territorial integrity. The second is to apply economic levers in Peking's foreign policy. Regional superiority will inevitably bring about conflict with Japan, while economic diplomacy i s based on export expansion and thus is on a collision course with the United States. Relations between mainland China and the West in the 1 990s will then be even more tense.