SIMULATED RESPONSES OF A FOREST-INTERIOR BIRD POPULATION TO FOREST MANAGEMENT OPTIONS IN CENTRAL HARDWOOD FORESTS OF THE UNITED-STATES

I used estimates of carrying capacity, survival, fecundity, and edge e ffects to simulate the responses of a forest-interior bird population to selection cutting, clearcutting, and no timber harvest I also model ed population sensitivity to changes infecundity, survival, K, and edg e relationships. Because model parameters are based on scant data, res ults should be regarded as hypotheses to be further investigated or me asures of the relative impact or sensitivity (given model assumptions) . Simulated population size was greater with no timber harvest than wi th clearcutting and greater with clearcutting than with group selectio n when edge effects were included in the model. Without edge effects, population levels were only slightly lower under group selection than under no timber harvest, and greater than clearcutting. Edge effects b ad only a small impact on population levels under clearcutting. Clearc ut size did not have much effect on population levels, but longer and shorter rotation ages resulted in higher and lower population levels, respectively. The model was very sensitive to declines in mean fecundi ty and survival, suggesting that factors affecting mean demographic ra tes could be more important than local edge effects. Some methods of t imber harvest may be compatible with the conservation of forest- inter ior birds, but better demographic data and information on habitat suit ability of selectively cut forests and young even-aged stands is neede d to adequately evaluate management options.