A study of history, using all available facts, properly analysed, can
be of great value to the designers of future ships. Study of the way i
n which decisions were made in the past related to the success or fail
ure of those decisions in service should be a guide to the future. New
methods of analysis may be tested against the records of past events,
particularly the records of disasters. Naval architects are well accu
stomed to use trend curves but do not recognise them as codified histo
ry failing, in consequence, to realise both their potential and their
limits. Finally, there are the simple but valuable benefits of not rep
eating past errors or of re-inventing the wheel.