FORECAST OF ROAD TRAFFIC EMISSIONS IN THE EUROPEAN-COMMUNITY UP TO THE YEAR 2000

The paper presents the results of a study carried out for the Commissi on of the European Communities (DG XI), with regard to the expected ev olution of traffic-produced emissions. The projection calculations hav e been carried out with a computer programme (called FOREMOVE), also d eveloped within this study. Based on detailed statistical data for eac h member state, the programme takes into account all major parameters of the dynamic system in question, such as character of vehicle park, vehicle usage, inspection and maintenance situation, etc. Different sc enarios were developed, including a baseline approach, accelerated bes t technology implementation and car use intervention. The results show that the introduction of the best available technology for on-board e mission control is able to substantially decrease road traffic emissio ns, especially when coupled to improvements in fuel properties. Moreov er, the positive impacts of vehicle usage (implemented either through administrative restrictions or as positive incentives) are also proved to be of importance.