CURRENT TRENDS IN INCLUDING RISK AND UNCERTAINTY IN STOCK ASSESSMENT AND HARVEST DECISIONS

Citation
R. Hilborn et al., CURRENT TRENDS IN INCLUDING RISK AND UNCERTAINTY IN STOCK ASSESSMENT AND HARVEST DECISIONS, Canadian journal of fisheries and aquatic sciences, 50(4), 1993, pp. 874-880
Citations number
19
Categorie Soggetti
Marine & Freshwater Biology",Fisheries
ISSN journal
0706652X
Volume
50
Issue
4
Year of publication
1993
Pages
874 - 880
Database
ISI
SICI code
0706-652X(1993)50:4<874:CTIIRA>2.0.ZU;2-8
Abstract
Many fisheries management bodies are considering methods for explicit consideration of uncertainty and risk in harvest decisions. We propose a two-step process where, in the first step, a stock assessment group determines the possible biological and economic ''states'' of the fis hery and evaluates the expected outcomes of different possible managem ent actions for each possible ''state.'' The evaluation may be summari zed in a tabular form, or it can take the form of a computer model. In the second step, a decision-making body, consisting of government, pu blic, and user-group representatives, examines the risks and benefits of each possible management action, given the possible ''states'' of t he fishery, and formulates a decision. This proposal differs from many current stock assessment and management procedures in that (1) the st ock assessment group makes no recommendations about catch levels, (2) the stock assessment group does not attempt to produce a ''best'' esti mate of stock condition, and (3) the decision group deals explicitly w ith risk and biological and economic uncertainties.