R. Hilborn et al., CURRENT TRENDS IN INCLUDING RISK AND UNCERTAINTY IN STOCK ASSESSMENT AND HARVEST DECISIONS, Canadian journal of fisheries and aquatic sciences, 50(4), 1993, pp. 874-880
Many fisheries management bodies are considering methods for explicit
consideration of uncertainty and risk in harvest decisions. We propose
a two-step process where, in the first step, a stock assessment group
determines the possible biological and economic ''states'' of the fis
hery and evaluates the expected outcomes of different possible managem
ent actions for each possible ''state.'' The evaluation may be summari
zed in a tabular form, or it can take the form of a computer model. In
the second step, a decision-making body, consisting of government, pu
blic, and user-group representatives, examines the risks and benefits
of each possible management action, given the possible ''states'' of t
he fishery, and formulates a decision. This proposal differs from many
current stock assessment and management procedures in that (1) the st
ock assessment group makes no recommendations about catch levels, (2)
the stock assessment group does not attempt to produce a ''best'' esti
mate of stock condition, and (3) the decision group deals explicitly w
ith risk and biological and economic uncertainties.