A CHAIN MODEL FOR DIOXINS - FROM EMISSION TO COWS MILK

This paper discusses a mathematical chain model for dioxins that relat es dioxin levels in cow's milk to emissions. The model consists of an atmospheric model, a pasture model and a toxicokinetic cow model. The complete chain model contains three uncertain parameters: two paramete rs related to the wash-off of dry and wet deposition by rain, and one denoting the bioavailability of dioxins in the cow. These three parame ters were estimated by calibrating the model to a set of 70 analysed m ilk samples originating froin several regions in the Netherlands locat ed near MSW incinerators. The calibrated model predicted an independen t set of 53 measurements of milk with an average prediction error of 2 6%.