RELATIVE COHORT SIZE AND FERTILITY - THE SOCIOPOLITICAL CONTEXT OF THE EASTERLIN EFFECT

Although evidence supports Easterlin's hypothesis that changes in rela tive cohort size account for swings in fertility in the post-war Unite d States (at least until the 1980s), studies of fertility in Europe sh ow only weak effects of relative cohort size on fertility. I argue tha t institutional structures of collective social protection and changes in rates of female labor force participation influence cohort relativ e economic status and thereby specify the effect of relative cohort si ze. These factors should help explain differences among nations in the effect of relative cohort size and the recent failure of fertility to increase. I test this interaction hypothesis using time-series data f rom 1949 to 1986 for 18 high income nations. Estimates from pooled cro ss-sectional time-series models show a clear positive effect of relati ve cohort size on fertility, but the relationship is weak in countries with collectivist social protection policies and in countries and per iods with high rates of female labor force participation. Easterlin's socioeconomic-choice model can be extended to include socio-political factors that shape the meaning of relative cohort size to families and its impact on fertility.