Public opinion survey responses regarding the desirability of changes
in defense spending can be compressed into a single variable, the publ
ic opinion balance, which, when accompanied by a control variable meas
uring the proportion of responses in the ''residuum'' (no opinion or k
eep the status quo), permits an accurate prediction of subsequent chan
ges in the rate of change of U.S. defense outlays from the mid-1960s t
hrough the 1980s. This finding cannot be interpreted as a simple case
of ''the public got what it wanted,'' however, because public opinion
was not autonomous or spontaneous, and defense decision makers themsel
ves played a central role in shaping public opinion.