PUBLIC-OPINION - A POWERFUL PREDICTOR OF UNITED-STATES DEFENSE SPENDING

Public opinion survey responses regarding the desirability of changes in defense spending can be compressed into a single variable, the publ ic opinion balance, which, when accompanied by a control variable meas uring the proportion of responses in the ''residuum'' (no opinion or k eep the status quo), permits an accurate prediction of subsequent chan ges in the rate of change of U.S. defense outlays from the mid-1960s t hrough the 1980s. This finding cannot be interpreted as a simple case of ''the public got what it wanted,'' however, because public opinion was not autonomous or spontaneous, and defense decision makers themsel ves played a central role in shaping public opinion.