Rc. Bandaranayake et Aj. Buzzard, THE PROBABILITY OF PASSING AT RESITS IN THE PART-I FELLOWSHIP EXAMINATION, Australian and New Zealand journal of surgery, 63(9), 1993, pp. 723-726
The study aimed to determine the relationship of a candidate's attempt
number and proximity of the aggregate score to the pass mark, individ
ually and in combination, to the probability of passing at the next at
tempt at the Part I FRACS examination. The results of 36 examinations,
in which 3513 candidates sat 5891 tests, were analysed. While 40.5% o
f all candidates who sat these examinations passed, the first attempt
pass rate was 44%. Overall about one-third of the candidates who had s
at the examination previously passed at the next attempt, the probabil
ity of passing remained fairly constant up to the fourth attempt and f
ell thereafter. As expected, the further the candidate's aggregate sco
re was below the pass mark, the lower the probability of passing at th
e next attempt. Considering both attempt number and proximity to the p
ass mark, probability of passing decreased with successive attempts ex
cept for very weak candidates. The results indicate that, while the im
position of an upper limit on the number of resits at the examination
is not justified, candidates who fall significantly below the pass mar
k should be advised against resitting for a reasonable period, and tho
se who repeatedly do so should be advised to seek another career. It i
s suggested that feedback to the candidates about the probability of p
assing at the next attempt be based on the results obtained in this st
udy.