THE LONG-TIME PREDICTION OF INTENSE INTERNAL WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE TROPICAL REGION OF THE ATLANTIC

An attempt has been made at a long-term prediction of intense internal waves in the tropical region of the Atlantic (Amazon polygon) using e cho sounder measurements of sound scattering layer oscillations during the period from 25 April to 12 May 1989. The repetition rate (i.e., t he ratio of number of events, when wave heights were greater than some fixed one, to record duration) and the intermittence coefficient (i.e ., the ratio of the duration of oscillations larger than 5 m, to the r ecord duration) have been calculated. The repetition rate was used to determine the predicted wave height, that is, the heights that can be surpassed only once. The prediction quality was estimated by analyzing a few waves with very large height observed during the experiment. Th e empirical formulas have been theoretically interpreted within the fr amework of the Poisson statistics. It allowed one to predict internal waves for various water regions.