FORECASTING RIVER FLOW USING NONLINEAR DYNAMICS

Authors
KEMBER G FLOWER AC HOLUBESHEN J
Citation
G. Kember et al., FORECASTING RIVER FLOW USING NONLINEAR DYNAMICS, Stochastic hydrology and hydraulics, 7(3), 1993, pp. 205-212
Citations number
11
Categorie Soggetti
Mathematical Method, Physical Science","Water Resources","Environmental Sciences","Statistic & Probability
Journal title
Stochastic hydrology and hydraulics → ACNP
ISSN journal
09311955
Volume
7
Issue
3
Year of publication
1993
Pages
205 - 212
Database
ISI
SICI code
0931-1955(1993)7:3<205:FRFUND>2.0.ZU;2-B
Abstract
A Nearest Neighbor Method (NNM) is used to forecast daily river flows that were measured at a single location over a time period spanning ab out seventy years. A parsimonious three parameter NNM is developed in the context of Nonlinear Dynamics and the dependence between forecast error and length of history used to construct forecasts is investigate d. Comparison is made to Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (AR IMA) models. The NNM is found to provide improved forecasts.