HIMALAYAN DEFORESTATION, CHANGING RIVER DISCHARGE, AND INCREASING FLOODS - MYTH OR REALITY

Every year during the monsoon season catastrophic flooding on the plai ns of the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers is reported as a result of hum an activities in the Himalayan region. This study investigates hydrolo gical changes in the catchments of the Sutlej, Beas, Jhelum and, in gr eater detail, Chenab rivers during recent decades; it seeks linkages b etween river discharge and climate in the mountains, and flooding on t he plains. Climatological data for the region are easily obtainable bu t hydrological information is restricted. Analysis of accessible data indicates that correlation between river discharge and precipitation i s low and regression analyses show that trends are not statistically s ignificant. Field observations of forest extent, land use, and erosion in the study areas suggest that there is no recent increase in forest cutting. Moreover, there is no evidence that flooding on the Gangetic plain has increased.