Domestic strife and the initiation of violence at home and abroad

Classical diversionary theory suggests that domestic strife leads to foreig n aggression. This theory has been unsupported empirically because it ignor es the critical role played by the military in decisions to use force abroa d. Strife leads to external aggression when it threatens the organizational interests of the military; otherwise, the military is reluctant to do poli ticians' dirty work. Only a particular type of domestic strife-contested po litical institutions or conflict over the fundamental rules of the politica l game-necessarily threatens the military's interests and thereby encourage s aggression. Using annual observations on all countries since 1827, we est imate fixed-effects duration dependent legit: models of the initiation of v iolence at home and abroad. We find robust evidence showing that contested institutions significantly increase the probability of the initiation of vi olence and that they account for violence usually attributed to other forms of domestic strife, regime type, and regime change.