From Abe Fortas to Zoe Baird: Why some presidential nominations fail in the senate

Why, given a strong presumption of success, do some presidential nomination s fail? Of 1,464 important nominations from 1965 to 1994, less than 5% fail ed. Ninety-four percent of failures were rejected or withdrawn before reach ing the floor suggesting that opponents are most effective during prefloor stages. We propose a theoretical framework based on the notion that policy entrepreneurs pursue their goals within the context of a presumption of suc cess. Legit analysis tends to support the theory that entrepreneurs can alt er the presumption of success and defeat a nomination if they (1) identify negative information about a nominee to provide a rationale for changing th e presumption and (2) expand the conflict through committee hearings and th e media. Presidential resources-high public approval and efforts to signal that the nomination is a high priority-increase the chances of confirmation . Contrary to previous research, divided government has no independent effe ct on the fate of nominations.