National trajectories of carbon emissions: analysis of proposals to fosterthe transition to low-carbon economies

In this paper we develop a framework for analyzing carbon dioxide (CO2) emi ssions trajectories from the energy and industrial sectors of the world's n ations under various policy options. A robust conclusion of our analysis is that early action by both developed and developing nations will be require d to hold atmospheric CO2 at or below doubled pre-industrial levels, and in centives for renewed investments in energy-sector technologies are a requir ed component of early action. We therefore develop and examine an internati onal emissions regime that: (a) in the short-term 'jump starts' the politic al and project-implementation process by providing incentives to exploit pr ofitable or low-cost carbon reduction opportunities; (b) in the near- and m edium-term addresses the inequities resulting from historic imbalances in g reenhouse-gas emissions while promoting efficient pathways for carbon reduc tion; and (c) in the long-term recognizes the equal rights of individuals t o exploit the services of the atmosphere and pursue a reasonable standard o f living in a low-carbon economy. We present and analyze a proposal to prom ote near-term activity in carbon reduction and energy innovation through a revitalized program of international joint implementation (JI) projects for carbon emissions reduction or carbon sequestration projects. Under our pro posal, JI partner nations both receive full credit for carbon reductions th at can be 'banked' and applied at a later date toward national emissions qu otas in the climate convention. A finite program lifetime provides further impetus for early action. This 'double counting' of credits results in only modest additional cumulative carbon emissions relative to a similar scenar io without cooperative partnerships. This 'JI banking' plan promotes critic ally needed scientific and institutional experience and innovation, initiat es cost-effective carbon reductions, and provides vital national flexibilit y in meeting eventual targets. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights re served.