Gm. Forbes et Tj. Threlfall, Treatment of Helicobacter pylori infection to reduce gastric cancer incidence: Uncertain benefits of a community based programme in Australia, J GASTR HEP, 13(11), 1998, pp. 1091-1095
Helicobacter pylori is a cause of gastric adenocarcinoma, but the role of H
, pylori eradication in reducing cancer risk is unknown. We sought to estim
ate the benefits of a screening and treatment programme for H. pylori infec
tion, aimed at reducing the incidence of gastric cancer in Australia. The i
mpact of this programme on cancer incidence was evaluated in sensitivity an
alyses utilizing Western Australian Cancer Registry data and published data
on the epidemiology of H. pylori and gastric cancer. The impact of variati
on in parameters used in the sensitivity analyses was substantial, ranging
from a 38% reduction in lifetime risk of gastric cancer in a best-case to 3
% in a worst-case scenario. In an intermediate-case scenario there is a 23%
reduction in lifetime risk, but in real terms this reflects a fall in cumu
lative incidence from 0.7 to 0.5% for males or 0.3 to 0.2% for females. The
projected cumulative lifetime incidence of gastric cancer in H. pylori-inf
ected males is 2.2% and 0.9% for females; this contrasts with 0.4 and 0.2%,
respectively, for those never infected. According to an intermediate-case
scenario, to prevent one gastric cancer, screening with or without subseque
nt treatment would be required in 617 men or 1639 women. Furthermore, this
programme may be less effective in reducing cancer incidence than would be
achieved naturally over the next 15 years, providing the current annual dec
line in gastric cancer incidence continues. In conclusion, the benefits of
a community based programme of H, pylori eradication in terms of cancer ris
k reduction remain unclear, related largely to uncertainties in the paramet
ers used to calculate these benefits. In Australia, any benefits obtained a
re likely to be, at best, modest.