Lead paint, toxic torts, and the housing stock: A case study in risk assessment

Numerous policymakers have accepted claims in the public health literature that the United States is in the middle of a serious epidemic of childhood lead poisoning, due primarily to lead paint in the housing stock. This arti cle analyzes some of the most influential lead paint epidemiological studie s from an economics perspective and finds evidence that the claimed effects of lead on intelligence, school success, and other outcomes may be grossly exaggerated. In addition, the main cost-benefit analysis used by policymak ers to advocate lead paint abatement of the entire U.S. housing stock conta ins serious mathematical errors and strikingly implausible economic assumpt ions. A corrected model shows that the proposed national abatement policy i s likely to yield no net benefit.