Modelling local and small-area income distributions in Scotland

Reliable local income data remains a key missing element within British off icial statistics. The authors discuss the development of a model of local i ncome distributions intended to overcome this problem, particularly in the context of housing-affordability analysis. The model links national surveys (the Family Expenditure Survey and Scottish House Condition Survey) to loc al data available from census and other sources. Developments to the model are described including: tenure disaggregation, calibration and testing wit h the aid of micro and other datasets; application down to small-area (post code-sector) level; updating and projection from census to recent and futur e dates; and predicting benefit take-up. Discussion of the results highligh ts some features of recent income patterns and trends in Scotland as well a s the value and limitations of the method.