DETECTION OF PERIODONTAL, DISEASE progression occurs when a predetermined t
hreshold of attachment loss is exceeded during longitudinal monitoring. The
incidence of disease progression in a population may be dependent on the m
ethod and threshold utilized to identify significant changes in attachment
level measurements. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of
utilizing different methods and thresholds on the incidence of disease prog
ression in an untreated periodontitis population. The relationship between
baseline clinical parameters and disease progression was also examined. A t
otal of 411 interproximal sites in 46 individuals were monitored monthly ov
er a 6-month period. Disease progression was determined by the cumulative s
um (CUSUM) method and by the absolute change in relative attachment level b
etween months 0 and 6 utilizing 3 different thresholds for attachment level
change (0.58 mm, 1.16 mm, and 1.74 mm) based upon examiner repeatability u
sing an automated probe. Utilizing the CUSUM method, 49 of 411 sites (11.9%
) demonstrated attachment loss over the B-month observation period. When at
tachment level changes greater than or equal to 0.58 mm, greater than or eq
ual to 1.16 mm, and 1.74 mm were used to identify disease progression, the
percentage of sites exhibiting deterioration were 19.5%, 8.8%, and 2.9%, re
spectively. These results demonstrate that the apparent incidence of diseas
e progression was dependent on the method and threshold utilized to detect
progressive sites. When utilizing the CUSUM and 0.58 mm thresholds a signif
icant (P < 0.05), but weak relationship (r = -0.26) was observed between ba
seline relative attachment level measurements and sites exhibiting disease
progression. This finding suggests that sites with significant but relative
ly less attachment loss may be more likely to experience further breakdown
compared to sites with a history of greater periodontal destruction.