Trends, events, and duration of initial welfare spells

A mother's initiation of welfare receipt is a key event for understanding t he dynamics of welfare receipt and the likely consequences of welfare refor m legislation passed in 1996. Using 28 years of data from the Panel Study o f Income Dynamics, we examine trends in the number and duration of first we lfare spells and in events and demographic characteristics associated with their initiation. We then estimate the extent to which state welfare benefi t levels and economic conditions influence caseload dynamics and account fo r cohort trends. We find increases in the late 1980s both in the number of initial spells and in the duration of those spells. Young age, out-of-wedlo ck first births, and, in particular, never-married status predict longer we lfare receipt. However, trends neither in the frequency of these conditions and events nor in the welfare durations associated with them account for t he increasing caseloads of the late 1980s.