Why do increased arrest rates appear to reduce crime: Deterrence, incapacitation, or measurement error?

This paper attempts to discriminate between deterrence, incapacitation, and measurement error as explanations for the negative empirical relationship between arrest rates and crime, Measurement error cannot explain the observ ed patterns in the data. Incapacitation suggests that an increase in the ar rest rate for one crime will reduces all crime rates; deterrence pl edicts that an increase in the arrest rate for one crime will lead to a rise in ot her crimes as criminals substitute away from the fil-st crime. Empirically deterrence appears to be the more important factor particularly for propert y crimes. (JEL K42).