Technology forecasting activities in Japan

Japan started its development in science and technology later than other co untries but was nevertheless quite successful. Many factors contributed to this success-and one of them was the adaptation of large foresight studies at the end of the 1960s. In Japan, the Science and Technology Agency (STA), among others, in 1971 started to conduct a large study on the future of sc ience and technology. The Delphi method was one technique used for foresigh t activities. This was not considered a tool of prediction but an instrumen t to systematically look into the long-term future. Among the aims of this type of national activity is the identification of areas of strategic resea rch and of generic technologies most likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefits. Although many countries stopped their national foresig ht activities in the 1970s, the Japanese Delphi process continued and was a pplied every five years. In 1997, the sixth study was finished. Yet, Japane se technology policies are less consistent than is commonly believed and in volve an assortment of policy measures and actors/ agencies pragmatically d evised to address diverse, ever-changing, and sometimes conflicting needs e mbedded in a broad range of issues. Forecasting results provide the "langua ge" to communicate among Japanese actors in science, technology, and societ y. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc.