In this paper it is suggested that Freud's 'tally argument' (Grunbaum
1954) is not best interpreted as a risky claim concerning the efficacy
of psychoanalytic therapy, but as a risky claim concerning the implic
ations of theoretical psychoanalytic explanations of the efficacy of p
sychoanalytic therapy. Despite the fact that Freud never empirically e
stablished that these implications hold, the 'tally argument' does dra
w attention to a critical distinction that is too often neglected in c
ontemporary empirical studies of psychoanalysis and other forms of psy
chotherapy: between empirical evaluations of the efficacy of psychothe
rapy and empirical evaluations of theoretical explanations of the effi
cacy of psychotherapy, and the different forms of comparative enquiry
relevant to each. It is argued that the contemporary neglect of this c
ritical distinction, in conjunction with the common negative conceptio
n of placebo control treatments in psychotherapy research, has led to
the epistemic impoverishment of experimental studies of the various pr
ofessional psychotherapies. In consequence, although there is good emp
irical evidence for the efficacy of psychoanalysis and other forms of
professional psychotherapy, there is no good empirical evidence for th
eoretical psychoanalytic explanations of the efficacy of psychoanalysi
s, or for traditional theoretical explanations of the efficacy of othe
r forms of professional psychotherapy.