Am. Stolwijk et al., External validation of prognostic models for ongoing pregnancy after in-vitro fertilization, HUM REPR, 13(12), 1998, pp. 3542-3549
This study aimed to validate prognostic models for predicting ongoing pregn
ancy after the first and second in-vitro fertilization cycles. Models were
developed using data from the University Hospital, Nijmegen, 1991-1994 and
tested using more recent data from the same centre and data from two other
centres. Although the variables included in the models seemed plausible, th
e predictions of the models were unsatisfactory. The models did not discrim
inate between women who had achieved pregnancy and women who did not achiev
e pregnancy; neither could they indicate which women had a (very) low proba
bility of ongoing pregnancy. Taking into account the success rate of a spec
ific clinic or the success rate during a specific period did not show any a
dvantage. The predictions were even inaccurate in the same hospital during
another period. It is obvious that these prognostic models should not be us
ed. This study shows the importance of validating prognostic models before
their implementation in clinical practice.