Prospective social-psychological factors of adolescent smoking progression

Purpose: To evaluate the ability of social-psychological risk factors to pr edict adolescent smoking behavior. Methods: Nonsmoking adolescents (n = 4032) who participated in the 1989 and 1993 Teenage Attitudes and Practices Surveys (TAPS I) were selected for an alyses. Four multivariate logistic models were used to examine (a) adolesce nts' smoking initiation, (b) adults' smoking initiation, (c) adolescents' p rogression to regular smoking, and (d) adults' progression to regular smoki ng. A series of social-psychological variables were measured. Results: All four models were significant. However, no social-psychological factors were consistently significant in all four models, except white eth nicity. Data showed that social-psychological factors are less able to pred ict the transition from nonsmoking to experimental smoking than that from n onsmoking to regular smoking. Conclusions: Future prospective studies should measure both social-psycholo gical and smoking acquisition factors at closer intervals to more accuratel y examine potential relationships. (C) Society for Adolescent Medicine, 199 8.