The interplay of macropartisanship and macroideology: A time series analysis

Considerable research focuses on explaining trends in party identification in the American public. Somewhat less attention has been devoted to trends in ideological identification, although such research has been on the incre ase. However, the potential relationship between macrapartisanship and macr oideology remains largely unexamined We use alternative methodologies to te st whether shifts in macropartisanship have occurred independently of, alon g with, before, or after shifts in macroideology. We examine the time serie s properties of the two series, which provides insight into their persisten ce and memory. Our framework provides a flexible approach to studying short - and long-run behavior, and the evidence is consistently at variance with the idea that there is a relationship between macroideology and macropartis anship. Thus, shifts in party identification and ideology are not driven in response to a set of common factors, nor can shifts in one partisan direct ion or the other be interpreted as ideological mandates at the aggregate le vel.