A whole-farm model for economic analysis in a goat production system in Mexico

In north-central Mexico, the production of goat meat is associated to summe r cultivation crops for family consumption. The objective of this study was to construct a simulation model for the economic analysis in this goat-agr icultural system. Linear programming was used to optimize system net income . Several scenarios were generated varying the price scenario (1992 and 199 5) and the use of technology (traditional and recommended). The approach vi sualized the system general response and the impact of a subsidizing progra m. The model was limited to a maximum cultivation area of 64 ha and a maxim um herd of 200 does. The model proved that recommended technology in 1992 i ncreased the net income of the system, but it did not in 1995. Ln both case s, it was necessary to buy maize stubble to supply the requirements of dry matter animal intake. Traditional technology was more versatile to goat mea t and maize stubble's price changes. The model selected a cultivated area o f 64 ha for the 1992 price scenario as well as for 1995 when subsidies were included. However, as subsidies were removed in 1995 the model output was only 8 ha. When the surface of rainfed crops was 16 ha or more, the use of technology helped to increase the net income, Thus, subsidy policy induced an expansion of the agricultural cultivated area in the system. On the othe r hand, the largest incomes for all the modeled scenarios were noted when t he herd size was maintained at 100 does. The scenarios presented express th e rationality in the process of decision making by farm owners. For instanc e, they prefer grain crops instead of forages cultivation due to the subsid y policy; they do not use recommended technology since it is not rewarded e conomically; and they embrace the traditional system because it is more fle xible to price changes. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V, All rights reserved.