Demographic implications of the Russian mortality crisis

The Russian mortality crisis of 1990-95 represents the most precipitous dec line in national life expectancy ever recorded in the absence of war, oppre ssion, famine, or major disease. Using standard demographic techniques, we develop a model Russian mortality schedule. Applying this schedule, we esti mate that there were 1.36 to 1.57 million premature deaths during 1990-95, equivalent to between 14 and 16% of all deaths recorded in Russia during th at period. The deaths were distributed unevenly among the population, with approximately 70% occurring among men, and a disproportionate number among working-age individuals. Overall, the 1990-95 crisis cost between 25 and 34 million person-years lived, an order of magnitude greater than the corresp onding figure for US casualties in the Vietnam War and roughly three times the number of forgone person-years lived due to AIDS mortality in the Unite d States during 1990-95. The repercussions of the 1990-95 mortality crisis in Russia and its aftermath will be felt for decades to come. We estimate t hat Russia's population will be about 7.5 million less in 2025 than it woul d have been had the crisis not occurred. The male/female ratio will also be reduced, particularly among the elderly. Perhaps the only silver lining of the crisis is that it will dampen the expected increase in Russia's elderl y dependency ratio, thereby decreasing the burden on the public pension sys tem. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.