Population of Russia: What can we expect in the future?

The paper presents the first ever demographic scenarios for the regions of Russia. Scenarios are developed for 49 oblasts (regions), six krays (territ ories), 21 republics, one autonomous oblast and two national cities, Moscow and St. Petersburg. Five scenarios are considered: two optimistic scenario s, two medium scenarios and one pessimistic scenario. The scenarios are com binations of three mortality scenarios, two fertility scenarios and three m igration scenarios. Results and a discussion of the differences between the scenarios are presented for 11 economic-geographic regions. The main findi ngs of the scenario analysis are: (a) the population decline, which started in 1992, continues in all scenarios; (b) aging of the population reaches u nprecedented levels; and (c) the spatial redistribution of the population o ut of Siberia to the European part of Russia, in particular the southern re gions (North Caucasus and the Volga Region), continues. (C) 1998 Elsevier S cience Ltd. All rights reserved.