Comparative analysis of age prediction by markers of bone change in the hand assessed by roentgenography

The major aim of this study was to develop an accurate method of age predic tion for a wide range of ages based on the roentgenographic assessment of t he hand bones. Such a method may be of particular interest in paleoanthropo logy and forensic medicine. The present paper provides the results of an an alysis of individuals belonging to two ethnically different population samp les: 1) Chuvasha (the Russian Federation), 293 males and 254 females, aged 18-91 and 18-86 years, respectively; and 2) Turkmenians (the Republic of Tu rkmenia), 257 males and 386 females, aged 18-82 and 17-83 years, respective ly. The hands of study participants were roentgenographed with standard met hodology. For each roentgenogram an equidistant osseographic score (OSS) in cluding the descriptive criteria of bone age was estimated. In addition, an osteoarthritic and an osteoporotic score (OA and OF, respectively) were as signed to each individual. OA was a modification of the Kellgren/Lawrence s cale, whereas the OP was locally developed. Results of the multiple logisti c regression analysis clearly indicated that OSS is a strong predictor vari able of an individual's age, with R reaching 0.93 in Chuvasha and 0.89 in T urkmenians (P < 0.001). The standard errors of estimate were approximately +/-5-7 years and compared favorably with most known methods of age assessme nt using bones. This study provides an efficient method of age prediction, with acceptable accuracy, and extends the upper limit of prediction to the age of 70 years. An additional finding of interest was the coexistence of O A and OP in the bones of the same hand. The observed correlation between th ese two conditions reached 0.8 (P < 0.001). (C) 1999 Wiley-Liss, Inc.