Managing moose, Alces alces, population in Finland: hunting virtual animals

The moose population has been intensively managed in Finland since the begi nning of 1970s. However, recent decline in population sizes observed in man y parts of the country was unexpected. In this study, the development of th e Finnish moose population in 1974-1994 was analysed with a simulation mode l where the crucial factor was the annual hunting. The simulation model was also used to generate predictions of the future population size. The simul ations for three game management districts (Varsinais Suomi, Etela Hame and Pohjois Save) followed well the actual population data. In forecasts, the population size predictions began to become increasingly unreliable when th e forecast horizon was extended to two or more years. The analysis revealed that a successful management strategy calls for information on spatial mig ration of the moose and more accurate population estimates.