J. Bak et K. Tybirk, The EU Acidification Strategy: Sensitivity of calculated emission ceilingsfor nitrogen and sulphur for Denmark, ENVIR POLLU, 102, 1998, pp. 625-633
The sensitivity of the calculated emission ceilings to changes and uncertai
nties in preconditions used in the cost-effective optimisations for the EU
Acidification Strategy is evaluated and the uncertainties on the optimisati
ons are discussed. The total uncertainties on the deposition targets are es
timated to be in the range of 20-30% and depend on uncertainties in the dep
osition calculations, in the critical loads calculations, and the shape and
number of receptor points in the cumulated frequency distribution curve us
ed for the optimisation. Using this uncertainty range it is found that the
deposition target in a limited number of grids has a significant influence
on the cost of the optimal solution for Denmark. The emission ceilings for
Denmark are sensitive to changes in the input energy scenario, but the sens
itivity to changes and uncertainty in marginal costs is limited. The use of
new emission factors for ammonia in Denmark has the potential to change th
e emission ceilings for SO2 and NOx allowing higher emissions for the energ
y sector.