This paper defines a training theory with which to predict the effectivenes
s of various formats of taper in optimizing physical performance from a sta
ndardized period of training and taper. Four different taper profiles: step
reduction vs exponential (exp) decay and fast vs slow exp decay tapers, we
re simulated in a systems model to predict performance p(t) resulting from
a standard square-wave quantity of training for 28 days. The relative effec
tiveness of each of the profiles in producing optimal physical improvement
above pre-taper criterion physical test standards (running and cycle ergome
try) was determined. Simulation showed that an exp taper was better than a
step-reduction taper, and a fast exp decay taper was superior to a slow exp
decay taper. The results of the simulation were tested experimentally in f
ield trials to assess the correspondence between simulation and real-traini
ng criterion physical tests in triathlon athletes. The results showed that
the exp taper (tau = 5 days) group made a significantly greater improvement
above a pre-taper standard (P less than or equal to 0.05) than the step-re
duction taper group in cycle ergometry, and was better, but not significant
ly so, in a 5-km run. A fast exp taper group B (tau = 4 days) performed sig
nificantly better (P less than or equal to 0.05) in maximal, cycle ergometr
y above a pre-taper training standard than a slow exp taper group A (tau =
8 days) and was improved more, but not significantly so, than group A in a
5-km criterion run. The mean improvement on both physical tests by exp deca
y taper groups all increased significantly (P less than or equal to 0.05) a
bove their pre-taper training standard. Maximum oxygen uptake increased sig
nificantly in a group of eight remaining athletes during 2 weeks of final t
aper after three athletes left early for final preparations at the race sit
e.