Wartime migration and the incidence of tuberculosis in the Zagreb region, Croatia

The objective of the present study was to investigate the rate of decline i n the incidence of tuberculosis ((TB) in residents (1985-1994) and in refug ees and displaced persons (1992-1994) during prewar and war periods (1985-1 994) in the region of Zagreb, Croatia, and to examine a possible change in the trend of decline in the resident population. Data an the incidence of TB were obtained from the Epidemiology Department, Institute for Lung Diseases, Zagreb, Croatia. The sample comprised two gro ups of subjects: residents (800,000-1,000,000 inhabitants) and all refugees and displaced persons temporarily residing in the Zagreb region (78,000-95 ,000 persons), Data were analysed by stepwise logistic regression. The most significant predictors of the TB incidence rate, were the syuare o f the year and residence status. The rate of TB incidence in nonresidents w as significantly higher than in residents, The decline in incidence in resi dents was significantly slower than in the nonresident group. The results did not indicate a potential change in the natural decline of t he incidence of tuberculosis in the resident population during the study pe riods, The difference between the regression trends of the incidence of tub erculosis in residents and nonresidents was the result of various concomita nt factors, including artefacts of the war.