Judgemental modelling as an aid to scenario planning and analysis

The paper presents the results of an application of judgemental modelling t o the development and analysis of scenarios in the pharmaceutical industry. It describes how the models were constructed and evaluated by a group of e xecutives responsible for the scenario generation, and uses perceptual mapp ing techniques to represent the differing perspectives. The paper considers the effectiveness of different approaches to support group decision making and how judgemental modelling aided the analysis of the outcomes. The init ial results suggest that the combination of the structured decision approac h and the visual representational technique is a powerful managerial tool i n such situations. Proposals for its future development and suggestions for further research are explored. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. Ail rights r eserved.