Political parties in a critical era

American political history is ordinarily divided into categories called par ty systems. Each system contains within it a broad similarity, an apparent "equilibrium" or "politics as usual" that distinguish it from all others. T he generational regularity of the transition from one party system to the n ext is remarkable. Or, at least it was until the critical era expected in t he 1960s apparently failed to materialize. Richard Niemi and I earlier argu ed that, in fact, there was a critical era in the 1960s, but it failed to b e noticed because it was not a partisan realignment, bringing a new voting majority to power. Nonetheless, the change in public opinion, leadership, i nstitutional structure, and policy agenda and coalition were pervasive. In this paper, I build on the argument mat the 1960s was a critical era. If it was, then we should be reaching the end of the consequent sixth party syst em moving toward (or actually being in) a new critical era, leading toward the seventh party system The dramatic electoral events of the 1990s provide a prima facie case that we may be encountering the end of politics as usua l. The analysis in this paper fleshes our that argument. particular compone nts considered include the change in electoral fortunes, noted above. The g enerational transition in presidential leadership and the nearly as dramati c change in congressional leadership are also considered. The rise of the S outh in the Republican congressional parry, in its sheer numbers, its sourc e of leadership, and its impact on the party's agenda is also examined. Not ice is taken as well of changes in electoral behavior, particularly recent increases in partisan identification and strength of attachment, declines i n split-ticket voting, and the weakening of the electoral strength of incum bency. Collectively, this evidence suggests that the 1992 and, especially 1 994 and 1996 elections show signs of the beginnings of a critical era.