Probation, race, and the war on drugs: An empirical analysis of drug and non-drug felony probation outcomes

During the recent war on drugs, large numbers of drug offenders were senten ced to probation. Critics of this policy argued that drug offenders belonge d in prison. This analysis uses logistic regression to compare 1993 individ ual level data on felony and non-drug felony probationers. The results of t his analysis provide some justification for the general fear presented in t he public media that felony drug probationers threaten communities. However , when the performance of African-American men on probation for felony drug offenses is partitioned, analysis results indicate that they ave not the t hreat to public safety to the extent indicated by the media or envisioned b y the American public.