Anthropogenic NOx emissions in Asia in the period 1990-2020

Nitrogen oxides emissions in Asia during the period 1990-2020 due to anthro pogenic activity are presented. These estimates are based on the RAINS-ASIA methodology (Foell et al., 1995, Acid Rain and Emission Reduction in Asia, World Bank), which includes a dynamic model for energy forecasts, and info rmation on 6 energy sectors and 9 fuel types. The energy forecasts are comb ined with process emission factors to yield NO, emission estimates at the c ountry level, the regional level, and on a 1 degree by 1 degree grid. In 19 90 the total NO, emissions are estimated to be similar to 19 Tg NO2, with C hina (43 %), India (18 %) and Japan (13 %) accounting for 75 % of the total . Emissions by fuel are dominated by burning of hard coal and emissions by economic activity are dominated by the power. transport, and industrial sec tors. These new estimates of NO, emissions are compared with those publishe d by Hameed and Dignon (1988, Atmospheric Environment 22, 441-449) and Akim oto and Narita (1994, Atmospheric Environment 28, 213-225). Future emission s under a no- further-control scenario are also presented. During the perio d 1990-2020 the NOx emissions increase by 350%, to similar to 86 Tg NO2. Th e increase in NOx emissions by sector and end-use varies between countries, but in all countries this increase is strongest in the power and transport sectors. These results highlight the dynamic nature of energy use in Asia, and the need to take the rapid growth in NO, emissions in Asia into accoun t in studies of air pollution and atmospheric chemistry. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.