S. Sengupta et al., Integrated approach to prediction of cervical intra-epithelial neoplasia status through a case-control study, INT J CANC, 84(1), 1999, pp. 69-73
A case-control study on cervical intra-epithelial neoplasia (CIN) was carri
ed out on 398 subjects in the state of West Bengal, India. These samples we
re taken from mass screening programs organized by the authors, maintaining
the uniformity of sampling to the extent possible. The cervical smears wer
e tested by the Papanicolaou (PAP) method, following the Bethesda system fo
r reporting of CIN status. Odds ratios and correlation coefficients among d
ifferent variables, assumed to produce carcinoma of the cervix, show that 6
out of 11 variables, i.e., age, education, socio-economic status, duration
of marriage, age at marriage and body surface, are associated with CIN. Mu
ltivariate analysis of logistic regression was carried out using BMDP-LR wi
th dichotomized response variables considering CIN (0 and 1) in one group a
nd CIN (2 and 3) in the other group. The outcome of the analysis indicated
that age and educational level are 2 contributing factors for GIN. The perc
entage of correct classification in this analysis has improved to 74.5%, wi
th a probability of 0.90. Polychotomous regression analysis was carried out
using BMDP-PR in the next step. This analysis showed that parity was a con
tributing factor, in addition to age and educational level. These 3 factors
provide a predictive model for identifying the high-risk group in a ration
al way. This approach would restrict screening to approximately 10% of the
population. Subsequently, the model has been validated in a confirmatory tr
ial among 85 new cases and was found to work satisfactorily. (C) 1999 Wiley
-Liss, Inc.