Calculating posterior cystic fibrosis risk with echogenic bowel and one characterized cystic fibrosis mutation: Avoiding pitfalls in the risk calculations
Se. Hodge et al., Calculating posterior cystic fibrosis risk with echogenic bowel and one characterized cystic fibrosis mutation: Avoiding pitfalls in the risk calculations, AM J MED G, 82(4), 1999, pp. 329-335
We describe a general approach to derive fetal risk following two separate
test results that each raise the likelihood of the same fetal abnormality w
ithout clearly determining whether the abnormality exists. Echogenic bowel
observed on fetal ultrasonography may have multiple causes, including an a
priori risk of approximately 1% of cystic fibrosis (CF). On numerous occasi
ons our laboratory tests have detected only normal cystic fibrosis transmem
brane regulator (CFTR) alleles in fetuses with echogenic bowel. This result
indicates that another cause most likely explains the abnormal ultrasound
finding. One of our tested fetuses was heterozygous for the Delta F508 CFTR
mutation and had a normal karyotype. Over 770 CFTR mutations have been des
cribed, and a significant proportion of parental mutant alleles could not b
e detected by our 25-mutation test. Further mutation analysis demonstrated
that the fetus' mother carried the Delta F508 mutation but the father (of d
ifferent ethnic background than the mother) did not carry a detectable muta
tion. Thus, this test result substantially increased the risk of the fetus
having CF, while still not giving a definitive answer to whether the fetus
was affected. A rigorous mathematical analysis determined that the 1% risk
of CF following ultrasound study was increased to slightly under 12% follow
ing DNA analysis. The case is described, and the mathematical formulas are
explained and illustrated with examples, along with a review of conditional
probability (Appendix 2). Am. J. Med. Genet. 82:329-335, 1999. (C) 1999 Wi
ley-Liss, Inc.