This paper tests traditional capital structure models against the alternati
ve of a pecking order model of corporate financing. The basic pecking order
model, which predicts external debt financing driven by the internal finan
cial deficit, has much greater time-series explanatory power than a static
tradeoff model, which predicts that each firm adjusts gradually toward an o
ptimal debt ratio. We show that our tests have the power to reject the peck
ing order against alternative tradeoff hypotheses. The statistical power of
some usual tests of the tradeoff model is virtually nil. (C) 1999 Elsevier
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