Multiparty electoral competition in the Netherlands and Germany: A model based on multinomial probit

A typical assumption of electoral models of party competition is that parti es adopt policy positions so as to maximize expected vote share. Here we us e Euro-barometer survey data and European elite-study data from 1979 for th e Netherlands and Germany to construct a stochastic model of voter response , based on multinomial probit estimation. For each of these countries, we e stimate a pure spatial electoral voting model and a joint spatial model. Th e latter model also includes individual voter and demographic characteristi cs. The pure spatial models for the two countries quite accurately describe d the electoral response as a stochastic function of party positions. We us e these models to perform a thought experiment so as to estimate the expect ed vote maximizing party positions. We go on to propose a model of internal party decision-making based both on pre-election electoral estimation and post-election coalition bargaining. This model suggests why the various par ties in the period in question did not adopt vote maximizing positions. We argue that maximizing expected vote will not, in general, be a rational par ty strategy in multiparty political systems which are based on proportional representation.