Risk factors for cirrhosis in early stage alcoholic liver disease.

Objective. - To assess the risk factors of cirrhosis in early stage alcohol ic liver disease. Patients. - We investigated 83 heavy drinkers (60 males and 23 females) in whom the first of two liver biopsies showed normal or pure alcoholic fatty liver. Results. - When the six following variables: sex, age, delay between the fi rst and last biopsy, total duration of alcohol consumption before the first biopsy, daily alcohol consumption for the last 5 years before the first bi opsy and the extent of fatty liver in the first biopsy, were considered tog ether in stepwise regression analysis, the delay between the first and last biopsy (P < 0.0001), sex (P < 0.04) and the extent of fatty liver in the f irst biopsy (P < 0.06) significantly improved the prediction of cirrhosis. The odds ratio of cirrhosis for a women was 19.1 (confidence interval 95 % [1.85-197]). The odds ratio for cirrhosis for a percentage of fatty liver g reater than or equal to 5/10 was 7.4 (confidence interval 95 % [1-92]). Conclusion. - With the same delay between two liver biopsies, the female se x and the extent of fatty liver are two independent risk factors for the de velopment of cirrhosis in heavy drinkers.