Increased pulse pressure and risk of heart failure in the elderly

Context Arterial stiffness increases with age, Thus, pulse pressure, an ind ex of arterial stiffening, may predict congestive heart failure (CHF) in th e elderly. Objective To study prospectively the association between pulse pressure and risk of CHF, Design Prospective cohort study. Setting The community-based East Boston Senior Health Project, East Boston, Mass. Patients A total of 1621 men and women (mean [SD] age, 77.9 [5.0] years) fr ee of CHF who had blood pressure measurements taken in 1988-1989 and were f ollowed up for 3.8 years. Main Outcome Measure Incidence of CHF as ascertained by hospital discharge diagnosis (n = 208) and death certificates (n = 13), Results After controlling for age, sex, mean arterial pressure, history of coronary heart disease, diabetes mellitus, atrial fibrillation, valvular he art disease, and antihypertensive medication use, pulse pressure was an ind ependent predictor of CHF. For each 10-mm Hg elevation in pulse pressure, t here was a 14% increase in risk of CHF (95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.24; P = .003). Those in the highest tertile of pulse pressure (>67 mm Hg) had a 55% increased risk of CHF (P = .02) compared with those in the lowest (<5 4 mm Hg). Pulse pressure was more predictive than systolic blood pressure a lone and was independent of diastolic blood pressure. Conclusion Pulse pressure, an easily measurable correlate of pulsatile hemo dynamic load, is an independent predictor of risk of CHF in this elderly co hort.