El Nino Southern Oscillation impacts on winter vegetable production in Florida

Florida's mild winters allow the state to play a vital role in supplying fr esh vegetables for U.S. consumers. Producers also benefit from premium pric es when low temperatures prevent production in most of the country. This st udy characterizes the influence of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Florida vegetable industry using statistical analysis of the respons e of historical crop (yield, prices, production, and value) and weather var iables (freeze hazard, temperatures, rainfall, and solar radiation) to ENSO phase and its interaction with location and time of year. Annual mean yiel ds showed little evidence of response to ENSO phase and its interaction wit h location. ENSO phase and season interacted to influence quarterly yields, prices, production, and value. Yields (tomato, bell pepper, sweet corn, an d snap bean) were lower and prices (bell pepper and snap bean) were higher in El Nino than in neutral or La Nina winters. Production and value of toma toes were higher in La Nina winters. The yield response can be explained by increased rainfall, reduced daily maximum temperatures, and reduced solar radiation in Fl Nino winters. Yield and production of winter vegetables app eared to be less responsive to ENSO phase after 1980; fur tomato and bell p epper, this may be due to improvements in production technology that mitiga te problems associated with excess rainfall. Winter yield and price respons es to El Nino events have important implications for both producers and con sumers of winter vegetables, and suggest opportunities for further research .